The pollster who provided the most accurate forecasts in the 2020 presidential election is back with insights for the upcoming 2024 contest. Their findings suggest that former President Donald Trump’s efforts on the campaign trail are beginning to bear fruit.
In the wake of President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing her, Vice President Kamala Harris initially gained momentum, enjoying a surge in polls. However, recent data reveals a shift in Trump’s favor across key swing states, as reported by AtlasIntel.
“The electorate’s dynamics may have evolved since the 2020 presidential race, and each U.S. election is unique,” noted the National Pulse. Still, the current data points to Trump leading in all but one of these critical states, paving the way for a substantial win in the Electoral College.
Let’s delve into the numbers. In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by a margin of 4.2 points. North Carolina and Nevada show similar trends, with Trump edging ahead by 3.7 and 3.6 points, respectively.
The competition thickens in Georgia, where Trump maintains a lead of 2.3 points over Harris.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania and Michigan present a narrower gap, with Trump holding a slim advantage of 1.5 and 0.6 points, respectively. These figures indicate crucial battlegrounds where every vote will count.
Wisconsin offers a twist in the tale, where Trump trails slightly behind Harris by only 0.2 points, highlighting the tight race.
The AtlasIntel survey indicates a growing momentum for Trump, but the closeness of these margins is a point of concern for Republicans. Outside of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, the competition is well within the margin of error.
Recent trends point to a narrowing race as most polls tilt towards favoring Trump. Nevertheless, he is yet to establish a considerable lead over Harris, as observed by the National Pulse.
It’s uncertain how recent events will impact voter sentiment, such as President Biden’s remarks at a Harris campaign gathering, where he controversially labeled millions of Trump supporters as “garbage.”
Adding fuel to the fire, during a Harris event, billionaire supporter Mark Cuban made disparaging comments about female Trump backers, calling them weak and unintelligent.
On CNN, senior data reporter Harry Enten highlighted several factors suggesting Trump’s potential victory against Harris.
Enten shared that Trump currently holds a slight edge over Harris in six out of the seven key battleground states, based on RealClearPolitics averages.
During a CNN segment, Enten cited dissatisfaction with the nation’s trajectory, President Biden’s declining popularity, and an increase in Republican registrations as signs favoring Trump.
“Only 28% of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. Let me contextualize that historically. When the incumbent party loses, this public sentiment typically hovers around 25%,” Enten stated.
“That current 28% is alarmingly similar to the historical 25% when the incumbents lose. It starkly contrasts with a 42% when the incumbent wins. Presently, very few Americans feel optimistic about the nation’s direction, aligning more with scenarios where the incumbent stands to lose,” he explained.
“Historically speaking, I found no instance where 28% of the American public perceived the country as being on the right track leading to an incumbent party victory,” Enten further remarked. “A 28% approval always precedes a loss for the incumbents.”
